2017 was certainly an interesting year! It got off to a hot start and just kept on going with weather making headlines, from a "slight" risk for severe weather in Texas on 1 January 2017, to the dangerous cold impacting most of us right now on New Year's Eve. The first "moderate" risk of the year was on 21 January from Texas to Florida and was quickly followed up by more when we saw our first "high" risk for severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center in 3 years on 22 January.
SPC Outlook for 22 January with Storm Reports for Verification
Now I'm not going to rehash every single one of the just over 150 severe weather risk days that the SPC issued this year. I'm also not going to list every weather story from the year. There were no shortage of these for sure, early-season tornado outbreaks, record-breaking flooding in the Midwest, the first land-falling major hurricane(s) in the U.S in over 10 years (category 3+), the unprecedented rainfall specifically caused by Hurricane Harvey in Texas, wildfires, the eclipse, and more recently, ridiculous cold, and crazy snowfall totals from lake-effect snow. There are detailed breakdowns of all of this online though and let's be real, how much fun would it be to get on here just to see the same thing you can see on THE Twitter 100 times today. So, to avoid the typical "year in review collage" theme, we're going to look at a few of my personal favorite chases and stories from this year and dive a little deeper into those events.
Dr. Greg Forbes and I in Denver, Colorado during ChaserCon in February 2017. What an honor to meet this guy! Got to spend a few hours sitting and watching/dissecting storm footage with him. (Picture by Me)
The Great Tim Marshall aka the Tim-Man giving an awesome presentation at ChaserCon in Denver. February 2017. (Picture by Me)
Dr. Josh Wurman and Dr. Karen Kosiba were in Denver as well. They just happened to bring a DOW with them. (Picture by Me)
Memorial for Tim and Paul Samaras, and Carl Young in El Reno, Oklahoma. (Picture taken by Me)
Derecho in Illinois on 27 May 2017
Derecho in Illinois 27 May 2017
Illinois Derecho on 27 May. At this time 100+mph winds were about 3 minutes from impacting our location.
Rocky Mountains. At this time we were about 14,000ft in elevation and were experiencing 1-2ft of snow per hour.
Lake on the Rockies. Heavy snow was falling, not unusual given the elevation, but this turned super sketchy. After taking in beautiful sights like this we hurried down the mountain as this region quickly became cut off from lower elevations by snow.
Personally it was my most "successful" year as a storm chaser, at least regarding the numbers. I saw 12 tornadoes (and given that I often chase in the Ohio Valley I probably missed 10 more that were in stealth mode), 2 hurricanes (Category 4 Harvey near Galveston TX, Category 4 Irma near Tampa FL), a derecho with 100mph winds in what was actually my first PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch/Warning (I've been in PDS Tornado situations but not SVR), countless other severe storms, and even a blizzard 14,000ft up in the Rocky Mountains in what was truly one of the sketchiest moments of the year for me. I traveled from the Florida coast to the Rocky Mountains. As usual Indiana, which has become my favorite State for "surprises", was the location of over half of the tornadoes I chased this season including the last two on 5 November. All in all I saw 7 tornadoes in Indiana, 4 in Kentucky, and 1 in Missouri. There were days where I felt like I had a jump on Mother Nature like on 5 July when I was able to forecast for a chase and my chase partner (Jon Durall) and I were able to be in position to see a tornado that developed on a day when NO severe weather was expected (my first less than 2% tornado, more on this day soon), and there were days that Mother Nature reminded me that I didn't have anything on her like on 28 April when I sat in western Kentucky for hours to see what I thought would be a very bad day for those of us that live here. The cap never broke, we never saw a drop of rain in Kentucky, and we we scrambled late that night to get out ahead of a tornado moving across southern Indiana. Or again on a day when I went all the way to eastern Tennessee just to see tornadoes touch down less than 30miles from my house. Why not give one more example for good measure juuusstt to make sure I stay humble, my last chase of this year was on 15 November. A squall line developed and made its way through Kentucky and since I was at home helping with a loved one in the hospital I decided to chase close to home. I thought I had it all figured out. I knew there was a good chance of embedded tornadoes developing within the line and even more, I had a good idea where they would be. I positioned myself out ahead of the line (which is really all you can do with a line, they aren't my favorite thing to chase) and waited. I was sitting there in perfect position, or so I thought, 3 separate tornadoes were confirmed within 15-20 minutes in EACH direction from where I was at. Somehow I had managed to be exactly in the middle of every one of them. Could be a coincidence since these things are chaotic and impossible to truly predict but I prefer to think it was simply a case of Mother Nature saying "You suck, Dustin!".
I should have known how things would go I suppose, had I only considered how my first chase went this year. 28 February, tornado outbreak occurs across the Ohio Valley, where am I you ask, in the middle of it of course! In the very middle of it, as in had I just started a little bit further in any direction I would have been in better position.
And a within a week I was. On 6 March another chaser (Robert Lee) and myself, along with hundreds of others, converged on the Midwest. This would be my first tornado of 2017, and in true form, Ms. Nature, M. made sure I knew my place even in the midst of a generally correct forecast.
SPC Outlook for 6 March with storm reports for verification. Circled area was our location where we confirmed a tornado right before we were overtaken by its circulation near Rolla, Missouri.
Top: Video of an embedded tornado passing over our vehicle as we were headed East trying to escape. Note, the only visual cues we had to what was happening was the change in wind direction and intensity coupled with radar data. Only when the circulation passed us and crossed a tree-line across the road did we actually see the tornado. (Example of why it's critical not to push your luck, especially at night) Bottom: Screenshot of my radar during the time the video was taken. (Video by Me, Driver was Robert Lee)
5 July 2017 Kentucky Tornado During Marginal-General Risk
Then there was one week in early July which ended up as one of my best week long runs as a chaser! On 5 July 2017, along with Jon Durall, we observed a tornado near Grayson County, Kentucky. It didn't do anything but blow some trees around which is how I like them. It was actually a very weak tornado but I am more proud of this one than any other I have ever seen since I started chasing. Initially there was a "marginal" risk for severe weather with a "less than 2%" chance for tornadoes. The lack of severe development locally resulted in a trimming of the severe risk but there were a few things I liked when looking at analysis data that we stayed out, and besides it was basically in my backyard anyway so why give up? Now this data did not support the idea of widespread severe weather in the region so it made sense to drop the overall severe risk but I couldn't ignore the potential for something isolated, it was just a matter of being in the right place at the right time or as I like to call it, looking for the "Goldilocks zone".
We honed in on an area just South of Grayson County, KY. Surface observations were showing 68-72 dew points and this moisture extended well throughout the boundary-layer with a trajectory that would lead to deep moisture continuing to advect into the area. Moisture box...check.
Surface obs for the afternoon of 5 July. Notice 70+ dewpoints well into Kentucky.
Sufficient destabilization was occurring with SBCAPE on the order of 1,000-1,500j/kg, lapse rates weren't great but they were good enough, and this instability produced a nice gradient right across south central Kentucky (Gradients are good because they indicate an imbalance in the atmosphere). Instability...I'll take it, check.
Surface-based CAPE (Instability) during the afternoon of 5 July
Wind fields left a lot to be desired however. Flow was pretty weak overall but there was a subtle shortwave trough passing through and a weak speed max (40kts) associated with it was passing over the area from the southwest. Although speed shear was poor, directional shear was okay. Aloft, winds were from the West/Southwest and what really played into target choice was an area of backing surface winds North of Bowling Green due to a stalled frontal boundary draped East to West across central KY (By backing I mean that winds were shifting from southwesterly to southeasterly with time). Deep-layer shear wasn't good but there was an enhanced area of low-level shear and helicity near the stationary front. Not ideal but given the fact that storms were going to be linear anyway I wasn't too concerned with if the environment favored supercells and supercell tornadoes because I knew that there was potential for rotation within the line. Wind Shear...check-ish.
Helicity at the Effective Inflow Layer
With a stalled front and passing shortwave there would be plenty of ascent to initiate thunderstorms, I was confident of that. It was a question of how well would they take advantage of the marginal, yet favorably overlapped ingredients in place. This would be the plan, hang out near the stationary front along the instability gradient where wind shear was somewhat enhanced.
Surface Analysis during the afternoon of 5 July. The stalled front crawling North into KY was a big part of our target choice.
Then, while watching the storms on radar we noticed that there was a discrete cell out ahead of the line. No, this discrete cell did not all of a sudden produce anything, in fact it was dying, but it was about to be ingested into the line. I won't get into the intricacies of this but there are times, given the right circumstances, that this will briefly increase the chances of a tornado. This was the right circumstances. We decided to go directly to the interface where the old storm was being ingested into the main line of storms. What did we see there?
Why this of course!
Which quickly developed into this before occluding and disappearing forever.
10 July 2017 Mini-Outbreak in Northern Indiana
We were quickly back at it. On 7 July we went to southern Indiana for an "enhanced" risk for severe weather. After the success on the 5th you'd think this one would be a layup right? Wrong, even though we were able to get exactly where we wanted to be, which was in the inflow notch of a beautiful supercell tracking near Seymour Indiana, it isn't up to how well you forecast or position yourself. It's always up to my lovely mistress Ms. Nature, M. (Video below is the supercell from southern Indiana as it tried to produce a tornado with a screenshot of the radar about the same time. Classic wall cloud, strong rotation, just didn't do it. Tornadogenesis Failure)
Radar at about the same time as the video above. Video taken looking North from our position. Video taken by Jon Durall (My Chase Partner)
Then on 10 July myself along with many of the folks I chase with again met up. In Indiana again, of course! Have you noticed a trend yet? The only thing that happened this day was a dozen tornadoes touched down across northern Indiana. It was my second multi-tornado day of the season. We had a three-peat by the time we left to come home. (Shout out to Jon Durall and Chris Dickerson for being a part of that day and night)
Two Tornado Warned Supercells. The One in the Foreground was Producing a Funnel Cloud.
Same two tor-warned cells. Both had tornadoes on the ground but we could only see the one in front clearly. No worry, a couple of the guys I chase with were on the in the background just a few miles away providing real-time reports.
Tornado # 2, not far from Kokomo
Tornado # 2 again
Tornado # 3 near Kokomo
As you know we also had a historic hurricane season. Hurricane Harvey brought historic rainfall to Texas, I mean FEET of rain, over 50 inches, as it made landfall in Rockport, TX. It then stalled along the coast and just kept the rain coming day after day. We've all heard about different things that happened due to this from the water rescues by citizens in fishing boats to the fact that the city of Houston literally sank about 2cm.
Map showing the vertical motion of land in southeast Texas. Land fluctuates but what is so impressive is that this was from one event, demonstrating the power of water. Image Credit: Chris Milliner, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Radar screenshot during Hurricane Harvey as I was making my way toward the coast. Full disclosure, after only about a day in Texas I decided to call it off and head home. Things were iffy when I got there and I spent most of my time bouncing around tornadoes/possible tornadoes.
Hurricane Harvey Radar Screenshot
Hurricane Harvey Radar Screenshot
Then Hurricane Irma! Made its way through the Leeward Islands, up through Cuba, and finally to Florida. Major damage occurred in the Florida Keys with damage occurring clear into Georgia. Power outages and fuel shortages extended up into Georgia as well. My partner (Hunter Gross) and I even faced the prospect of running out of gas ourselves. Let me point out that this was not do to a lack of preparedness. Hunter and I both pride ourselves on being prepared for anything and have operated in past hurricanes, blizzards, and even the Gatlinburg,TN wildfires. We took enough extra fuel to make it back into Georgia but what caught us off guard was the sheer extent of impacts. If not for a stroke of luck and the hard work of a fellow chaser then we would not have found any more fuel.
Evacuations in advance of Hurricane Irma.
Working hard as Irma approached.
Working even harder as Irma approached. Surprisingly this didn't last much longer. (Ha)
This was a common sight following Irma, even in areas that didn't see "significant" damage.
Tampa Bay. Image showing the water being pushed back that everyone was freaking out about online for awhile.
Personally things got quiet following July, with the exception of the hurricanes, and I was unsuccessful in chasing tornadoes following the 3-in-one-day chase on 10 July. There were a number of chases for sure but I don't hold all the cards and sometimes that's just the way it goes. Either way I was at 10 tornadoes seen up until 5 November. Myself and a couple friends from Memphis took to the road to head to...surprise, southern Indiana! Wouldn't you know it, we were able to see two tornadoes by the time this mini-outbreak was said and done.
As is often the case in the Ohio Valley this is your view when observing a tornado. There really was a tornado on the ground just beyond those trees. We briefly caught about two glimpses of it in clearings. That's one reason why it's important to have unbreakable situational awareness.
And here's one of those clearings. This was about as good as it got during this chase.
Above: 4-Panel radar screenshot at the time we were observing the tornado on 5 November. (Panels from Top Left Clockwise: Base Reflectivity, Correlation Coefficient, Storm-Relative Motion showing Tight Rotation, Normalized Rotation-Values of 1.5+ correlate with strong rotation)
Close up of Storm-Relative Motion Product on Radar during time we were observing the tornado on 5 November. From this perspective to the radar site Red indicates South/Southeast Winds and Blue indicates North/Northwest winds. Tornado was located where they converge just Northeast of my location.
There was one more chase for me and that was the 18th of November chase we covered earlier. The season total was at 12 and that's where it sits right now with 20 minutes left in 2017. Not bad, especially considering that I think of myself as a storm chaser not just a tornado chaser.
Going into 2017 I had set a couple of specific goals for chasing, just like I do with every aspect of my life. I wanted to see more tornadoes than I did in 2016 (6)...Got it! I wanted to cover a category 2+ hurricane (I was in Category 1 Hermine in 2016)...this one wasn't necessarily in my hands but whatever, got it, twice (2 Cat 4's). I wanted to join the <2% club and see a tornado on a day with a less than 2% chance for them...got it! Really all I wanted to do was get better than I was before and that's something we can all do. It doesn't matter if you're trying to track nature's most elusive and dangerous storms, working in an office somewhere, writing music, or anything, we can all strive to get better. Pretty simple huh? In life you either grow or decay, you can't just exist in a state of complacency. If you're not growing then you're decaying. I can promise that regardless of what specific goals I have for 2018 they will all be aimed at helping me grow in an effort to perfect my craft.
Also, please understand that I am not a storm chaser who sits around begging for storms to wreak havoc on people's livelihood. I do not cheer and yell when I watch storms rip homes apart. During the unfortunate times that I've seen absolute destruction I treat the situation with the respect it deserves and I would hope that others do the same. Like anyone else, I would prefer that tornadoes remain in an open field miles away from the nearest structure, probably in Kansas because you see that sort of thing there, and then they could be observed and studied easily with no harm done. I just know that that's not the case and I simply try to be where they happen when they happen.
This post wouldn't be complete without acknowledging the loss of two individuals whom I had the tremendous blessing of knowing. Kelley and Randy were more than just my mentors, they were truly my friends and things are not the same without them. I really miss those guys and I know so many of you feel the same, whether you knew them personally and had the pleasure of learning from them, or you knew them through the amazing work they did in this community. I will carry myself in 2018, as I did in 2017, in a way intended to make them proud.
Kelley Doing What Kelley Did, In This Case He Was Teaching An Eager Child About Weather (Taken by me near Garland/Rowlett, TX on 18 March 2017
Randy and Myself in Indianapolis During November 2016
So now I sit here, frantically pecking away at a keyboard so I can publish a blog post at exactly midnight. It's freezing cold outside, a balmy 10 degrees with a wind chill of -5 to -10F. This post has had me thinking about this past year all day long, really for a few days if I'm being honest, and I know there are things I wanted to say and forgot and there are things I'll think of that I wish I would have said but hey, if I'm fortunate enough, there's always next year...
