Good afternoon! Snow is melting away a little at a time, although the big melt will be this weekend. With the snow keeping me stuck inside for at least another day or so I thought it would be a perfect opportunity for pining over days with surging dew points and triple points, warm sectors that are actually warm, and when the rumbling you hear outside is from thunder and not just the snow plow going back down the road. Days when you spend hours and hours on the road jacked up on caffeine eating lunch from a Love's Truck Stop in search of a moment in the perfect position on the perfect storm.
Maybe those days aren't too far away anymore? There are some signals that we could see thunderstorms around East Texas/Arkansas as we round out the weekend. You guys know I like to be a patient forecaster so we won't jump to conclusions, and honestly things aren't necessarily jumping out screaming "severe weather outbreak" or anything but we will look at what we know and examine some of the possibilities going forward and, as always, we will set a "checkpoint" to come back and reassess things. It's something at least, right.
It's only been two months since I was preparing a forecast for chasing severe storms but it feels like many more. Let's see if I can remember how this goes...I believe best practices dictate that you first analyze and diagnose the current state of the atmosphere so here we go.
GOES16 water vapor imagery shows a series of shortwaves/upper-lows across North America. I've numbered them 1-4 from East to West. The disturbance off of the East Coast (#1) over the Atlantic Ocean was responsible for bringing quite a bit of snow to the Eastern CONUS but it is caught up in the flow of the northern and southern stream and will continue to depart. #2 is a shortwave over the Great Lakes and will track within the northern stream and stay North of our area of concern. #3 has been giving the models fits actually but even with all of the model divergence I expect it to stay South of our area. I'm not saying these shortwaves are insignificant because every detail should always be analyzed, and I have analyzed these as well, but the feature we are focused on for the possible thunderstorms Sunday is #4. Currently located off of the Northwest Coast, it is a very well-defined system already. 12-hour height-falls are significant in the Pacific Northwest in response to this low (200m+). Strong flow is associated with this low as well with 100kts+ sampled in the 00z soundings throughout the region.
Stepping down to the surface real quick we can see the high-pressure that's dominating our local weather for the next few days, as discussed in yesterday's post. Upstream in the NW CONUS you can see a deep surface-low and attendant frontal boundaries, a clear surface reflection of the impressive mid-upper wave we looked at on water vapor. This surface chart actually says a lot about what may happen, even looking forward 3-4 days. The main thing I'm getting at here is the impact of the surface-high over the Southeast right now. This high is weakening but it's stubborn and has already taken steps to limit severe potential in the near-future. Yes, the southerly flow along the western periphery of it is beginning the return-flow cycle for moisture and warm air advection but I'm concerned if that will be enough to support severe weather. With the divergent flow within the center of the sfc-high straddling the Gulf Coast and an Arctic air mass that has been established for what seems like forever, extensive modification of the air residing over the GofM has taken place. Cooler air has made its way well over the usually warm waters which serve as a common source region for Southeast severe weather. I do think we will see sufficient moisture make its way across the ArkLaTex region as the broad high-pressure slowly makes its way Eastward but it is definitely something to consider going forward, especially if the shortwave over the Southern US is able to develop a related surface system (not highly likely but not impossible either).
Surface dew point observations across the US. The influence of Arctic air is evident and the intrusion of this drier air has resulted in modification extending well into the Gulf of Mexico. This will have to be overcome by sustained return of deep moisture before severe storms would be likely.
We'll take a look at some of the model data next because there is, believe it or not, pretty good consistency regarding the large-scale features that set the stage. Now I always say that you don't just jump on board with the models because they're consistent because they can be consistently wrong, but in this case I agree with a lot of the output regarding the evolution of our shortwave & upper-flow going into Sunday and I don't see anything they are tripping up on either so we'll briefly touch on it. Where I get concerned is with the usual differences in timing. The GFS has initiation of storms a little earlier in the day when diurnal heating could help destabilize things a little more, although there could be showers early on anyway. The Euro's latest "master" run is much later with showers throughout the afternoon and thunderstorms firing up after 9pmCST. These are the details we'll have to work out just like we always do in these situations.
GFS Ensemble Mean 500mb Heights
Above are the recent GEFS ensemble runs for 72hr/day 3. The valid time of these images is about 18-24hrs before expected thunderstorms across the Southern US. I wanted to show the relative consensus with the upper-level wave as it approaches the Rocky Mountains. You can see that the GEFS has pretty similar solutions in its most recent output. You can also see the struggle with the shortwave over the SE CONUS that I mentioned earlier. From this point I suspect we will see our system round the Rockies and emerge over the Central Plains while also assuming a negative-tilt as it amplifies. I expect amplification in response to a strong upper-level jet passing over the low which will lead to upper-level divergence/mass removal. We should also see a surface-low develop in response to this as well as it interacts with the thermal boundary in place from the retreating cold air and returning warm air. The low-level low-pressure will help advect higher theta-e into the region. With a strong southwesterly jet up top and southerly low-level winds, coupled with a strong kicker at 850mb, wind profiles look favorable for both damaging winds and even a tornado or two. That isn't really in question. Storms should be well-ventilated and deep-layer shear would be supportive of organized updraft/downdraft relationships. Forecast soundings are showing sickle-shaped hodographs supportive of rotation in both the low and mid-levels. Although there are the timing differences I think there isn't much doubt in sufficient forcing for ascent arriving at some point, when will be important though.
I'm just not sold on instability. There will be a moisture/theta-e axis across East Texas up into Arkansas most likely. It currently looks like we could see surface dew points approaching 60F and dew points at 850mb at 8-10C (I like to see 10-12C). I do prefer to see the deepest moisture established over the target area for about 18-24hrs before storms but it is what it is. The destabilization just doesn't look overly impressive right now. The GFS is suggesting 500j/kg of surface-based CAPE with marginal lapse rates (6.5C/km) during the afternoon centered over ArkLaTex. The ECMWF has slightly more instability and pushes 1,000j/kg of surface-based buoyancy across the area but it shows it after dark with later initiation and also has rain showers throughout much of the day. The ECMWF seems like it's overdoing it personally so I'm leaning more toward the GFS for now. This is one of those "subject to change" things though as I would prefer to lock in the timing better before I make a call on that.
Mutli-Model "Spaghetti" Plot of 500mb Heights at 72hrs (Sunday 6amCST)
Multi-Model "Spaghetti" Plot of 500mb Heights at 96hrs (Monday 6amCST)
GFS MOS (Model Output Statistics) of Max Temp and Probability of Precipitation at 6pmCST Sunday. The Surge of Warm Air Northward Can Be Seen Across East Texas into Missouri.
Based on everything I've seen I don't see any signals for a "widespread" severe weather outbreak Sunday-Monday. I do see a chance for some storms however with some strong-severe embedded. I won't make a call on specific threats yet either but I can't rule out a tornado or two right now so that's worth watching too. I'd like to see how things go over the next 24hrs regarding moisture return, shortwave evolution, and model output and then make an update Saturday morning so that's the plan. At that point I'd expect to have a better grasp on how smaller-scale details look so we could take a shot at a more specific forecast too.
Regardless of how we see this unfold one thing seems likely; everyone will crawl out of their winter hibernation, throw the Snuggie away, and start making their calls. It's not quite Spring yet but it might be that time for a small taste of chasing model trends, SPC outlooks (and the criticism from the know-it-alls of course), and copious amounts of coffee while impatiently living life on a 12z to 00z schedule!
Well well, is it cold enough yet? Being buried under all of this snow is even helping bring temps down a little more which is exactly what I'm sure we all wanted. The good news is that we are set up for a weekend warm-up. I have succumbed to the season myself as well and have been suffering through a case of the flu that I would swear is never-ending. Fortunately things will be quiet over the next few days as our previous system has exited the region and temperatures slowly begin their climb so tonight's post won't have to cover too much. I do have a few topics I've been putting things together to get into for awhile now but with all the winter weather taking the top priority I put them on hold but with things quiet for the next little bit we'll take a look at some stuff that goes beyond the current forecast. In the spirit of the "surprise" snow amounts that impacted many across Kentucky and Tennessee at the beginning of this week we'll look back at the analysis I was looking at from that event as it was unfolding. I don't really view that event as a major "busted" forecast by any stretch, snow was expected, snow occurred, but there was definitely more snow than many of us were expecting, myself included. There was a clear tip-off that we were looking at an over-achiever early on in the day and that I had underestimated snow totals so we will take a peek at the fly in the ointment, so to speak, and see what it was that we saw that made us change our minds pretty quickly from 1"-3" of snow to 4-6"+.
Enough of that for now though, it's the relief from this crazy cold everyone is concerned about. We're still going to have to get through tomorrow morning with temps across KY in the 0F to -5F range when we wake up and temps in the 10's Friday morning first but we're getting there. Observations aloft (500mb, about 18,000ft ASL) show our system along the East coast as it moves away from us. It is bringing some snow to Eastern States but it's done with us. The speed-max associated with it has also passed around the base of the upper-low and it should continue to transition and close off even more anyway. There is another piece of energy visible upstream coming into the Pacific Northwest but this will be covered in more detail in tomorrow's post when we discuss rain chances to close out the weekend.
We'll go ahead and drop down to the surface analysis for a minute next. An area of high-pressure is centered over the Mississippi River Valley in the wake of our upper-low. This broad surface-high will be what dominates our weather as we go into the weekend. As this high makes slowly drifts eastward over the coming days it will result in both calm weather with mostly clear skies and, eventually, once it gets Southeast of us, it we will see surface winds become more southerly and warmer Gulf air will push into the region.
I've been forecasting temps that shoot a little lower than model guidance because of the snow on the ground but I think we will see temps get up to around 30F on Thursday and into the upper 30's on Friday. Much better than sub-zero without a doubt! We will see winds increase to either side of 10mph tomorrow as well which will make wind-chills a little worse but those SW winds will be slowly bringing in warmer air so just dress warm and avoid being outside unless absolutely necessary. Our warm air advection regime continues Saturday with southerly winds across the region as a surface high-pressure slides off to our West.
I think we will see temps when we wake up Saturday morning around 30, mid-upper 20's in Eastern Kentucky, and they should make their way into the mid 40's for the daily max. Upper 30's/low 40's should be the temps across KY Sunday morning and wouldn't you know it, I think we will flirt with temps in the low-mid 50's Sunday afternoon. There will be increasing rain chances to close out the weekend but confidence is relatively low regarding smaller features so we'll break that down tomorrow. Either way, at least it's rain chances, NO snow, so be smart with the extreme cold as we get close to the weekend and dress appropriately, don't be out driving if the roads are unsafe (they're still pretty bad here where I live), and we'll be able to enjoy some relief in the not-so-distant future.
That's pretty much what I'm expecting over the next few days. I wanted to keep tonight's post brief so...I did. I'll be back on tomorrow to discuss our rain chances into next week and summarize the winter storms we just endured. Stay warm!
DKK
Hey folks, a winter storm system is making its way across the region and bringing a powerful cold front with it along with rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, 20-30mph wind gusts, and free-falling temperatures. Basically it's got a little bit of everything. Some locations will see a few inches of snowfall but let's be clear, the ice is the main threat. The main takeaway is that there will be negative impacts from this storm as it moves across Kentucky, and the rest of the region for that matter, and we will likely see dangerous travel conditions Friday-Saturday
Let's start with radar. This screenshot was taken at 2:25amCST and shows the rain just along/behind the surface front, freezing rain from southern Indiana southwestward through Owensboro & Evansville, sleet is the most dominant now, and off to the West as we get close to the limits of the particular radar in use you can notice a transition to snow where the frontal-surface aloft has passed. I will add that you should always use various analysis tools together to verify as best you can what you're looking at. The delineation of the transition zone is accurate in this image however. Dual-pol radar data along with environmental analysis and ground reports from the area strongly support what the radar is showing at this time.
Color Legend: Green/Yellow= Rain, Red/Pink=Freezing Rain, Orange/Peach=Sleet, Blue=Snow
Now that we know what's going on locally and upstream how will it evolve over the next several hours? Ultimately the precipitation is going to work across the region over the next several hours. Then it's a matter of assessing the environment it will be moving into. Full-disclosure: I finally saw a doctor today because I've been really sick and unfortunately I have the flu so I won't necessarily share everything I'm looking at right now. We'll look at some of the key features as they relate to local impacts though.
I always start my analysis in the upper-levels of the atmosphere and work my way down but for the purpose of this blog I am just sharing some of the most notable parts of my analysis. The picture above just shows surface station observation plots with a regional radar composite overlay. I have outlined the cold front in blue as well as the freezing line in pink. Also worth noting is the respectable wind gusts behind the front. Wind gusts up to 30mph have been measured following its passage.
One of the main factors in precipitation type during this event is this layer of warm air (relatively speaking of course) at 850mb(about 5kft). The area where this warm layer overlaps the sub-freezing air at the surface is where we are seeing the freezing rain/sleet. The surface-front is located across Western KY with the freezing line just West of the Ohio River. You can see that the freezing line at 850mb is located across Central Illinois through Southeast Missouri and Central Arkansas. Any precip that falls through this layer will melt however it will freeze again when it reaches the surface. This is the reason for the ice concerns. You can also see that the temperature lines (isotherms) are packed very closely, indicating a strong thermal gradient which is associated with our frontal surface aloft (Sometimes it seems people get so caught up with other things that they forget to look at the atmosphere is 3-dimensions, 4-dimensions if you consider time). This correlates with an area of strong "frontogenetical" forcing. We have obviously been chasing model trends for days now and there is tremendous consensus showing our precip continuing but it is still important to look at analysis data and be able to support that. This area of strong forcing with our FROPA (Frontal Passage Aloft) will support continued precip production as it moves Eastward. This particular factor is important as I see it because it means we have strong ascent within our "warm over cold" sector. This would support the continued production of freezing rain/sleet, and thus a continued threat for ice accumulation throughout the night. I wouldn't be surprised to see ice totals of 0.2" to 0.5". That is certainly enough to make travel dangerous and cause occasional power issues. Don't get too locked in on the max of that range and understand that most will see something near the median of that and that is what I'm considering when mentioning possible impacts. Obviously more ice would mean more problems but I don't want to be the "worst case scenario" guy. Same deal with snow accumulations. Many forecast maps have between 2"-4" of snow across the State. I personally think some people will see a little more than that, up to 5"-6", but that doesn't mean everyone will. For some reason it seems like when snow forecasts come out, whether it's a blogger like myself, or an official forecast from the NWS etc, there are people who will see 1"-3" of snow possible and they will say "they're predicting 3" of snow!".
So now that we have an idea of what our environment looks like locally let's look at how this hand might play. Upper-low is to our West over the Central Plains. Upper-level divergence associated with the upper-jet over the region is resulting in large-scale ascent in addition to the focused forcing with the frontal surface. Forcing for ascent is going to continue to move Eastward. Also in place is southerly/southwesterly mid-level flow thanks to the upper-low to our West and this will serve to keep sufficient moisture advecting over the area. This will also help keep a warm layer above the colder surface layer. Based on this I would expect most locations, at least to the I-65 corridor to experience rain transitioning to freezing rain following the surface front's passage followed by a transition to snow following the FROPA (frontal passage aloft). Once the front passes aloft we will have a sub-freezing profile and in turn, snow production will more efficient. Precipitation will continue tracking generally eastward. Rain will transition to freezing rain and approach I-65 over the next couple of hours. It looks like there is some erosion of the warm layer aloft and this would support more of a sleet precip type but I still believe locations, primarily West of I-65, will experience decent showers of freezing rain. Later this morning and into this afternoon we will see wintry precip tracking across East KY, although there could still be some freezing rain it looks like it will be more supportive of sleet/snow.
One more interesting thing to point out. There is some instability across the region which would support convective development and any showers that develop and take advantage of that instability would be capable of higher rates of freezing rain/sleet.
There you have it. If I felt a little better I would have really broke down some of the data I'm using tonight but hopefully this will help with understanding the "why's" of this event as we go through this weekend. The one thing that will initially limit ice accumulation is the pavement temps. I say initially because it's not going to take long to get pavement temps back down below freezing.
Observation Data from the Kentucky Roadway Weather Information System via KY Transportation Cabinet. Pavement temps are still well above freezing right now but that will change. Also see if you can determine when the cold front passed each site.
I will be continuously watching how things play out all day and will make another post should the situation call for it. Hopefully we will be good to go though and we can wait until later this weekend to do a summary of the event instead of making another update to address hazardous weather.
Good morning! Please bear with me since I'm on the road right now but I still wanted to make a quick post to mention the major storm system making its way across the Country right now. This "double-barrel" low-pressure system will bring nasty impacts to the region as we start the weekend. I expect to do another update tonight once I'm set up and stationary and we'll discuss specific local impacts then. The models are tripping up because there will be multiple precip types (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow) within a relatively short time and they haven't been reliable at all regarding accumulation yet. I expected they would start coming around today anyway so we'll see what they morning runs look like shortly.
What do we know? I'm glad you asked, that is a great question. I actually feel very confident about the large-scale details. That stuff is essentially locked in as I see it. We've still got a split-flow pattern aloft and the southern branch has brought a "bowling ball" upper-low (breaking out the book of weather terms today) into the West/Central CONUS. The northern branch has also brought a shortwave trough across the northern tier which has interacted with a thermal boundary at the surface to develop a surface-low. A second surface-low is developing over the Central Plains as a reflection of the southern upper-low as well. As our shortwave rounds the southern Rockies and ejects eastward it should take a very sharp negative tilt. It will also interact with a noticeable thermal boundary where two distinct air masses are clashing and the "frontogenetical" forcing (where the air masses clash) coupled with a strong upper-level divergence/low-level convergence relationship should result in rapid deepening of our surface-low. (The negative tilt, which means the low-pressure system tilts with height, also results in the surface-low being in a favorable location within the left-front exit-region of the upper-jet where vertical motion may occur, in turn leading to mass being removed from the column, decreasing the pressure).
A surface-low associated with the northern piece of energy will track toward the Great Lakes while the southern low will track toward the Appalachians. At that time, Thursday into Friday, I believe we will see an energy transfer between the northern-southern energy and our system should tighten up again as it passes through the Tennessee region.
I think that is one of the keys to how our transition from rain, to freezing rain/ice, to snow will play out. A quicker energy transfer with a faster pull of deep, cold air into the region would result in a faster transition to snow. We will see a transition with rain/ice/snow regardless but the storm track and duration greatly affect how much of a certain precip type we see. Those are the main questions from my perspective and once we can really answer them we will be able to pinpoint specific impacts more accurately.
Like I said, I really think today's guidance gets a better handle on things with the surface-lows both coming together so that's what's next, watching development and monitoring data trends.
Either way, we'll be under a warm advection regime as southerly flow takes over in response to the system off to our West so for the next 36hrs or so we will experience much warmer temps than we have in awhile. We'll actually get up into the mid 60's Thursday. Winds will occasionally be gusty as the pressure-gradient tightens as well, ~20mph gusts are possible. Rain should begin on Thursday with a transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain & sleet possible some time Friday. Friday night into Saturday we should see a changeover to snow. It is fairly likely we will see accumulating snow with ice being a realistic hazard as well. That's where we stand for now. Now it's back to patiently watching everything as it unfolds. I'll be back later tonight to make an update after I've had the chance to reassess everything.
DKK
Well...we are in the monitoring/nowcasting phase and honestly, things are still very complicated. I wanted to do a brief post tonight to outline a few of the factors that I think are important in what happens and then it's simply a matter of analyzing things as they unfold. Ultimately I think we will see rain transition to a freezing rain/rain mix across Kentucky over the next hour or two (particularly across North and East Kentucky and locations North of the Ohio River), and we are going to see some problems with ice across the State for our Monday morning. I believe that many locations will see a "glaze" of ice, about 0.01"-0.1" at most, and while this doesn't constitute an "ice storm" by any stretch of the imagination, it would be enough to make travel difficult for some, especially considering the timing coinciding with a Monday morning rush. The good news is that today was our last day of dangerously cold temperatures for a little bit.
A Winter-Weather Advisory is in effect for pretty much all of the Ohio Valley through Monday morning (Until 12:00pmCST). No surprise here, regardless of the outcome there is good potential for negative impacts on the Monday morning commute.
Recent radar was showing a widespread precip shield across much of the Central CONUS. There have been reports of sleet/freezing mixing in across Western Kentucky over the past hour and multiple locations are beginning to report ice on their roadways. This will continue to drift eastward throughout the overnight.
Now we'll take a look how how everything is set up for the night...
Looking at GOES16 Water Vapor imagery we can see our shortwave trough over the Southern Plains. I've outlined the trough axis/vort max in black. As expected, this trough deepened as it took its southeastward dive and triggered cyclogenesis as it interacted with a baroclinic zone associated with a stalled-front across the Southern Plains. As I mentioned in the previous updates I figured moisture wouldn't be a problem because the Pacific-Jet was tied into an atmospheric river (The "Pineapple Express") and it would be accentuated by moisture from the Gulf. You can see the moisture plume being transported from its Pacific source region and spreading downstream from our shortwave over the Eastern CONUS.
Analysis at 850mb (about 4,700ft or 1400m AGL) indicates a pretty substantial warm layer over Kentucky with a 30-40kt southwesterly low-level jet. This LLJ will continue advecting warm air and moisture across the region while simultaneously enhancing isentropic ascent (overrunning). Futher North over Ohio temps are colder within this layer. I do think evaporative cooling will help cool this layer somewhat but any precip falling will melt as it passes through (temps are about -4 degrees C at 700mb above this layer). Given very dry air within this layer the process of wet-bulbing/evaporative cooling will be key in how our precipitation evolves throughout the night. When precipitation falls it can cool the air it's falling through by evaporating its moisture into it. Naturally this effect is more efficient when you have precipitation falling through drier air. In any case, precip will continue for several more hours as it slowly drifts to the East.
At the surface we can see our surface-low and associated frontal boundaries with high-pressure off the East Coast. We can also see the retreat of our Arctic air mass as the surface flow between our pressure systems funnels in a warmer Gulf air mass. I've also outlined the strongest warm air advection by using the "box technique". By overlaying thickness contours of the 1000-500mb layers and surface-pressure contours and then assessing where the contours overlap you can identify the areas of stronger/weaker advection. Smaller boxes correlate with stronger advection. If you remember, I have said for days that I thought the NAM was underestimating the strength of warm air advection and that's exactly what we've seen. The NAM was consistently spitting out data suggesting temps that didn't breach the freezing mark today but we actually saw temps in Central Kentucky that hit 40 degrees F. Now with the loss of daytime heating we will certainly see those temps fall but starting at 40F as opposed to 31F makes a big difference. The latter would likely result in a snow event. We are not looking at any appreciable snow across Kentucky. Instead, I think we will see the rain currently ongoing transition to a mix of mostly rain with a little freezing rain/sleet. As mentioned before, actual surface temps will still support freezing, regardless of precip type. Our ground is still frozen to a depth of 4"-5" and even though some surface temperature readings made it above freezing today, with the sun down now we should see the frozen sub-surface bring surface temps back down. This effect will obviously be greatest on untreated surfaces.
Across Indiana and Ohio we see a slightly colder air mass still established and I think this will support more freezing rain/wintry mix than locations southward. Once even colder air moves in I believe we will see a transition to snow in these regions.
I said from the beginning that the strength of this WAA was going to be critical and that I thought it was going to be stronger than many were anticipating. A lot of opinions that people were sharing were based on output from the NAM model data (because it had the much more aggressive solution) and I wasn't sold on it (I definitely wasn't the only person who wasn't sold on it but some people just ran with it. If you've followed me very long then you know how I feel about that). When I was doing my initial analysis today I immediately knew that the WAA was in fact stronger than a lot of the guidance suggested and that meant that those particular models were probably not going to be too close to what happens tonight. That's why I'm always whining about how important it is to pay attention to detail and consider things like that if weather forecasting is something you want to do. You will still be wrong sometimes, sure, but you'll do so much better overall!
Here's a look at a few station observations across the State from the "Kentucky Roadway Weather Information System" via KY Transportation Cabinet. Notice the "pavement temperature" readings...
Leitchfield
Louisville
Lexington
So there you go, very complicated situation indeed. I've scrutinized the data for a week now, broke it down over and over again, and considered every scenario and variable I can think of. Sometimes you get setups that let you make forecasts with higher confidence and sometimes you get, well, this. That's what makes it worthwhile though. You can't control how things go but you just start at what you have and go from there. Now we watch.
This week will see a little bit of everything so there will be no shortage of things to cover this week. From this winter system, to 50+ degrees, to thunderstorms, to another shot of cold air, to snow chances, we've got it all. I'll break down how the pattern looks after this system moves out tomorrow.
Good morning folks! As expected, things are a little more clear now regarding our setup for the end of the weekend. There are still uncertainties regarding small-scale details but the overall system is coming together. Freezing rain, "regular" rain, sleet, and snow are all in play across Central Plains into the Ohio Valley and I'm pretty confident we are going to see some problems starting in the Plains sometime late Saturday and locally late Sunday through Monday.
What we we're going to do tonight is look over how the features I outlined in the previous post evolved over the past 24 hours and take a quick look at what the latest data is suggesting. Tomorrow is still the day that I really want to fine-tune everything and we'll be monitoring as things unfold on Sunday so we're right on track.
Quick analysis shows our pair of shortwaves upstream beginning to interact with each other, as expected. The circle labeled #1 is the wave that will bring winter weather to the Central Plains on Saturday and to us late Sunday. The #2 circle is the northern wave that will ultimately pass somewhere near the Great Lakes early next week. A shot of energy from the northern wave is actually wrapping up with energy from the southern wave, essentially seeding it, and I expect to see this energy eventually merge with the southern wave as they cross into the Plains which should result in the initial deepening of the trough.
Current Mesoanalysis Data. Note the Warmer Air Beginning to Surge Northward Into the Southern Plains Creating a Thermal Contrast
At the surface, high-pressure and an Arctic air mass are still in place across most of the central and eastern CONUS. In the Southern Plains however, southerly surface-flow is advecting warmer air sourced in the Gulf northward. This has set up a thermal gradient between the cold air and the warmer Gulf air. This stationary front is important because when our wave aloft dives southward into this region it will interact with this boundary and trigger cyclogenesis (the development of the surface low-pressure) sometime overnight Saturday. We will then see the Arctic air mass begin retreating with a warm front sliding northward and warm air advection becomes established across much of the eastern part of the Country. This is where some of the critical small-scale uncertainties come in. Now I think we will see some issues with ice and slick spots simply due to sub-freezing ground temps but the extent of what we see has a lot to do with how fast the Arctic air retreats.
We know we will have a classic "overrunning" setup (Isentropic Ascent) with warmer air riding up and over the warm front and producing wintry precip to its North. We will have ample moisture with trajectories from the Gulf source region directly into the warm sector. Unfortunately forecasting precip-type relies on the temperature throughout the atmosphere and that's where the greatest spread seems to be (naturally, right?). The GFS is quicker with the retreat and stronger warm air advection, though it has been trending cooler compared to its earlier runs. The NAM is slower and keeps temps right around freezing for this event. The NAM is typically better with air masses like this but the GFS has handled the overall evolution of the pattern better so far. Ensemble means suggest freezing temps for eastern KY during this event but then we quickly get above freezing on Monday. The warmest guidance seems a little too warm based on the way things look right now so I'm treating it as an outlier while cautiously keeping an eye on it.
Blend of Forecast Model Output For Temps For Overnight Sunday through Monday Morning
0z NAM Suggested Temperatures for Monday Morning During Event. I Personally Think The NAM Is Underestimating The Advance Of Warmer Air Northward And As A Result Is Too Slow Moving Our Cold Air Out.
0z GFS Suggested Temperatures for Moday Morning During the Event. Notice It Has Stronger Warm Air Advection with the Arctic Air Mass Retreating Much More Quickly Than the 0z NAM (And All The Previous NAM Runs Too)
So based on all of that here's what I think is the most reasonable solution for now. I can't ignore the strength of the warm air advection given decent low-level flow out of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface-winds should be in the vicinity of 20mph. I think we will see temps at or just above freezing which would support rain/freezing rain. I'm leaning toward locations in eastern KY, primarily along/East of I-75, to be the most likely to see freezing rain. In Western and Central KY I think locations along the Western Kentucky Parkway have the highest chance for freezing rain, although I expect a mix to be more likely.
SREF (Short-Range-Ensemble-Forecast) Model Guidance for the Probability of Precip Being Freezing Rain (Valid 9pmCST Sunday). I Actually Placed A Lot Of Weight On The SREF Output Because I Think It Has A Good Handle On The Development Of Our Surface-Low/Frontal-Zones
SREF (Short-Range-Ensemble-Forecast) Model Guidance for the Probability of Precip Being Freezing Rain (Valid 12amCST Monday)
SREF (Short-Range-Ensemble-Forecast) Model Guidance for the Probability of Precip Being Freezing Rain (Valid 3amCST Monday)
0z NAM Model Guidance for Total Accumulation of Freezing Rain Through 6amCST Tuesday
Elsewhere in the region, we will see the heaviest snowfall across northern Indiana and Ohio as the northern wave we looked at earlier moves into the Great Lakes and lake-effect snow gets rolling. The heaviest freezing rain could occur North of the Ohio River (North of the warm front) and into the Midwest.
WPC Forecast Probability of Freezing Rain More Than 0.01" from 6pmCST Sunday through 6pmCST Monday
That's going to do it for this morning's post. It's all about attention to detail. The good news is that we have reached the point where our wave will begin it's trek into the Central Plains within the next 12-18hrs and we can actually observe its development as it does. That's our next real decision point and that's when I'll make another update and fine-tune my precip forecast.
Well we have just jumped right into things for 2018 haven't we? All eyes have been on the major storm impacting the East coast, and for good reason, it is straight up impressive. You've heard the terms "bombogenesis" and "bomb cyclone" thrown around, and can you blame us, any chance you get to use a word like "bombogenesis" (actual technical term) you take it. I mean, "bombogenesis" is one of my favorite meteorological terms, right up there with isodrosotherm (line of equal dew points). What does it mean though? "Bombogenesis" is defined as a system that drops 24mb in 24 hours. (Millibars are units used to measure air pressure. You're probably familiar with mercury barometers which measure atmospheric pressure in inches of mercury and the average pressure at sea-level is 29.92" which is equal to 1013.25mb. Just for fun, if you had an area at sea-level of 1 square inch then the weight of the atmosphere above it would weigh about 14.7lbs on average.) Anyway, a meteorological "bomb" is defined as a drop of at least 24mb in 24hrs, the storm currently impacting New England dropped 59mb in 24hrs! The central pressure last time I checked was 950mb. That's the pressure you could find in a category 3 hurricane!
Active Pattern Over The Next Week
There is potential for some wintry precipitation which could cause some problems with ice here in Kentucky during the weekend into next week and another wave may bring rain later in the week so that's what I want to focus on. All the typical caveats are on the table for this right now because of the usual small-scale uncertainties that you see but as long as you know that then there is no harm in taking a look at what we've got going on now and how I think things will evolve going forward. I'm not going to be posting any specific predictions regarding snow/ice accumulation, rainfall, or any of that at this time because there is just too much uncertainty regarding whether we will see snow, freezing rain/sleet, or rain and I feel like it would only be for show if I did. Regardless of accumulation, even rain will cause problems because it will not have any trouble at all freezing, leading to ice issues.
So here's the plan: We'll look at the current conditions across the region and walk through what we can expect over the next 36hrs. After all, you've got to get to the end-zone before you can cross the goal line. Then we'll get to know some of the players involved in our weekend setup. I'll briefly get into the model guidance and share my thoughts on what they're suggesting and where I think they're tripping up but I think the data that comes out over the next few hours will have a little better grasp on things. That's as far as we can go for now so the next step is to monitor the features upstream to see what they do through tonight and through the morning (Friday) while keeping an eye on the forecast models. I'll reassess things, post an update sometime Friday, and take a shot at precipitation predictions for Sunday-Monday. By Saturday we'll see key features come into focus so I'll update my precip predictions during the AM and then we watch what happens.
The good news about the mid/late week system is that we will experience a warm up preceding it and won't have to deal with snow or ice. It's still a bit too far out for any real confidence about anything else though so we'll roll with this first system through the weekend and just monitor things upstream. There's never a reason to make a "forecast" based solely on model guidance unless you just want to throw spaghetti at the wall and see if anything sticks so you can brag about being the first one to predict something, IF the random model you choose happens to be correct. In this case, it's unlikely it's correct. There is basically a North to South conga line of waves from western Canada to California with a closed-low in the mix too. So think, the models have to resolve how each one of those waves evolve over time while also accounting for how they affect each other. That is a difficult scenario for them to handle. On top of that, every mistake amplifies with each step forward in time. I think the next milestone to say anything meaningful about this setup will be Saturday night when we can see if the vort max (vorticity is a measure of spin in the atmosphere) way out in the Pacific is able to eject from its parent low. Then we watch to see if it can be seeded by a shot of energy associated with a closed-low off to its East. IF that happens it would likely deepen into a sharp trough but that's as far as I can speculate and at this point the models can't agree on what the background environment will look like as a whole, let alone how one specific wave will behave.
Current Weather: Dangerously Low Wind Chills Continue
Frigid temperatures will be the main issue going into the weekend as Arctic air still has us in its grip. We do have some snow showers moving through southern Illinois that will make their way into western Kentucky through the overnight hours. These showers/flurries are associated with an area of upper-level divergence as a jet-streak passes overhead. Moisture trajectories from Lake Michigan aren't quite streamlined into KY like they were last night since the upper-trough has shifted a little bit so we don't have the same moisture support as we did, which is why we saw a few brief heavy snow bands last night, but soundings are still showing enough moisture over Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri to support continued flurries over the next few hours.
Snow Showers Moving Southeast Through Illinois. 11:08PMcst
The pattern aloft right now consists of deep troughing and progressive winds aloft over the eastern CONUS with ridging in the West. We're looking at split flow off of the West coast with the Pacific jet coming into California and the Polar jet rounding the ridge in western Canada and diving southward through central Canada. The Pacific jet merges with the Polar jet as it enters the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS.
300mb Analysis Showing Upper-Level Flow. You Can See an Area of Divergence Near MO/IL Border As A Speed-Max Within the Polar-Jet Passes Through. This Is Aiding The Current Snow Development In Western IL.
500mb Analysis Showing Mid-level Flow With the Eastern Trough and Western Ridge. Notice the Progressive Flow Throughout the Trough.
Surface Analysis Showing the Extensive Reach of Very Cold Air.
High-pressure is building into the Midwest in the wake of the trough. The southern extent of the polar-front and surface high-pressure to our northwest, which is still firmly tapped into Arctic air for now, are driving very strong cold air advection. Unfortunately, that means we will be waking up to temps in the single-digits and seeing our highs only reaching 20 degrees or so. Wind chills will be between +5F and -10F. Thatkind of cold is dangerous. That's not sensationalism either. Temps that low can literally hurt you if you're outside for more than just a few minutes, especially if you don't dress appropriately.
Storm System #1 Sunday-Monday
You can clearly see the pair of shortwaves expected to work together to be our system as we close out the weekend (I've circled them black and also outlined the Polar-Jet axis and the Pacific-Jet axis). The southern wave will continue riding the Pacific-jet before crossing the Rockies to the North and diving southward across the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley region. The northern wave, which is less progressive and embedded in weaker flow aloft, will hang out in Canada as it slides East before it takes a southeast jog toward the Great Lakes. The southern wave should deepen as it exits the top of the ridge and crosses the Central Plains. I expect deepening at that time due to strengthening baroclinicity as it gains access to a relatively warmer air mass to the South while already being tied to the colder air mass to the North. It's at this time, sometime early Sunday most likely, that it should trigger cyclogenesis and we'll see a surface-low develop in the Southern Plains. This is where things get tricky. Not so much that I'm not confident in the setup because I am, it's how the setup affects things, particularly temperatures which dictate whether we see rain, snow, sleet etc. With high-pressure to our South/Southeast and low-pressure to our South/Southwest we will be firmly under the influence of southerly low-level wind. I don't have any concerns regarding whether or not we'll have the moisture to fuel everything given that the Pineapple Express is well-connected to out initiating shot of energy AND we'll have Gulf moisture streamlining into the region from the South. The moisture trajectories resulting from the low-level flow are actually really favorable because we will be set up for substantial isentropic ascent and the expected trajectories would continually overrun the warm front in the area. That warm front is the kicker for me though. We will see strong warm-air-advection with surface winds near 20mph. Near/North of the warm front I'm expecting sleet/freezing rain/mixed precip with rain South in the warmer air mass. I currently think it will be near the Ohio River which would mean rain for Kentucky but we'll have to watch closely. Regardless, since we have had such extreme cold sustain over the region, if we have temps in the mid-30's we'll still see some ice develop and travel hazards will ensue. Models have been trending colder but the spread has temps either at or just above freezing. What seems to be tripping them up is the retreat of the Arctic air. They can't seem to figure out exactly how that plays out and that has a lot to do with inconsistent runs. Expansive snow cover across much of the northern CONUS is also reinforcing the cold air, potentially altering the output.
That's where we will stop for now as it's 3:30AMcst and I have things to do but I suspect we will see the model runs in a few hours agree a little more, for better or worse. As I said, I'll reassess things later on and take a shot at precip predictions with today's update. In any case, we could see things get a little messy in the next couple days so stay tuned.
2017 was certainly an interesting year! It got off to a hot start and just kept on going with weather making headlines, from a "slight" risk for severe weather in Texas on 1 January 2017, to the dangerous cold impacting most of us right now on New Year's Eve. The first "moderate" risk of the year was on 21 January from Texas to Florida and was quickly followed up by more when we saw our first "high" risk for severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center in 3 years on 22 January.
SPC Outlook for 22 January with Storm Reports for Verification
Now I'm not going to rehash every single one of the just over 150 severe weather risk days that the SPC issued this year. I'm also not going to list every weather story from the year. There were no shortage of these for sure, early-season tornado outbreaks, record-breaking flooding in the Midwest, the first land-falling major hurricane(s) in the U.S in over 10 years (category 3+), the unprecedented rainfall specifically caused by Hurricane Harvey in Texas, wildfires, the eclipse, and more recently, ridiculous cold, and crazy snowfall totals from lake-effect snow. There are detailed breakdowns of all of this online though and let's be real, how much fun would it be to get on here just to see the same thing you can see on THE Twitter 100 times today. So, to avoid the typical "year in review collage" theme, we're going to look at a few of my personal favorite chases and stories from this year and dive a little deeper into those events.
Dr. Greg Forbes and I in Denver, Colorado during ChaserCon in February 2017. What an honor to meet this guy! Got to spend a few hours sitting and watching/dissecting storm footage with him. (Picture by Me)
The Great Tim Marshall aka the Tim-Man giving an awesome presentation at ChaserCon in Denver. February 2017. (Picture by Me)
Dr. Josh Wurman and Dr. Karen Kosiba were in Denver as well. They just happened to bring a DOW with them. (Picture by Me)
Memorial for Tim and Paul Samaras, and Carl Young in El Reno, Oklahoma. (Picture taken by Me)
Derecho in Illinois on 27 May 2017
Derecho in Illinois 27 May 2017
Illinois Derecho on 27 May. At this time 100+mph winds were about 3 minutes from impacting our location.
Rocky Mountains. At this time we were about 14,000ft in elevation and were experiencing 1-2ft of snow per hour.
Lake on the Rockies. Heavy snow was falling, not unusual given the elevation, but this turned super sketchy. After taking in beautiful sights like this we hurried down the mountain as this region quickly became cut off from lower elevations by snow.
Personally it was my most "successful" year as a storm chaser, at least regarding the numbers. I saw 12 tornadoes (and given that I often chase in the Ohio Valley I probably missed 10 more that were in stealth mode), 2 hurricanes (Category 4 Harvey near Galveston TX, Category 4 Irma near Tampa FL), a derecho with 100mph winds in what was actually my first PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch/Warning (I've been in PDS Tornado situations but not SVR), countless other severe storms, and even a blizzard 14,000ft up in the Rocky Mountains in what was truly one of the sketchiest moments of the year for me. I traveled from the Florida coast to the Rocky Mountains. As usual Indiana, which has become my favorite State for "surprises", was the location of over half of the tornadoes I chased this season including the last two on 5 November. All in all I saw 7 tornadoes in Indiana, 4 in Kentucky, and 1 in Missouri. There were days where I felt like I had a jump on Mother Nature like on 5 July when I was able to forecast for a chase and my chase partner (Jon Durall) and I were able to be in position to see a tornado that developed on a day when NO severe weather was expected (my first less than 2% tornado, more on this day soon), and there were days that Mother Nature reminded me that I didn't have anything on her like on 28 April when I sat in western Kentucky for hours to see what I thought would be a very bad day for those of us that live here. The cap never broke, we never saw a drop of rain in Kentucky, and we we scrambled late that night to get out ahead of a tornado moving across southern Indiana. Or again on a day when I went all the way to eastern Tennessee just to see tornadoes touch down less than 30miles from my house. Why not give one more example for good measure juuusstt to make sure I stay humble, my last chase of this year was on 15 November. A squall line developed and made its way through Kentucky and since I was at home helping with a loved one in the hospital I decided to chase close to home. I thought I had it all figured out. I knew there was a good chance of embedded tornadoes developing within the line and even more, I had a good idea where they would be. I positioned myself out ahead of the line (which is really all you can do with a line, they aren't my favorite thing to chase) and waited. I was sitting there in perfect position, or so I thought, 3 separate tornadoes were confirmed within 15-20 minutes in EACH direction from where I was at. Somehow I had managed to be exactly in the middle of every one of them. Could be a coincidence since these things are chaotic and impossible to truly predict but I prefer to think it was simply a case of Mother Nature saying "You suck, Dustin!".
I should have known how things would go I suppose, had I only considered how my first chase went this year. 28 February, tornado outbreak occurs across the Ohio Valley, where am I you ask, in the middle of it of course! In the very middle of it, as in had I just started a little bit further in any direction I would have been in better position.
And a within a week I was. On 6 March another chaser (Robert Lee) and myself, along with hundreds of others, converged on the Midwest. This would be my first tornado of 2017, and in true form, Ms. Nature, M. made sure I knew my place even in the midst of a generally correct forecast.
SPC Outlook for 6 March with storm reports for verification. Circled area was our location where we confirmed a tornado right before we were overtaken by its circulation near Rolla, Missouri.
Top: Video of an embedded tornado passing over our vehicle as we were headed East trying to escape. Note, the only visual cues we had to what was happening was the change in wind direction and intensity coupled with radar data. Only when the circulation passed us and crossed a tree-line across the road did we actually see the tornado. (Example of why it's critical not to push your luck, especially at night) Bottom: Screenshot of my radar during the time the video was taken. (Video by Me, Driver was Robert Lee)
5 July 2017 Kentucky Tornado During Marginal-General Risk
Then there was one week in early July which ended up as one of my best week long runs as a chaser! On 5 July 2017, along with Jon Durall, we observed a tornado near Grayson County, Kentucky. It didn't do anything but blow some trees around which is how I like them. It was actually a very weak tornado but I am more proud of this one than any other I have ever seen since I started chasing. Initially there was a "marginal" risk for severe weather with a "less than 2%" chance for tornadoes. The lack of severe development locally resulted in a trimming of the severe risk but there were a few things I liked when looking at analysis data that we stayed out, and besides it was basically in my backyard anyway so why give up? Now this data did not support the idea of widespread severe weather in the region so it made sense to drop the overall severe risk but I couldn't ignore the potential for something isolated, it was just a matter of being in the right place at the right time or as I like to call it, looking for the "Goldilocks zone".
We honed in on an area just South of Grayson County, KY. Surface observations were showing 68-72 dew points and this moisture extended well throughout the boundary-layer with a trajectory that would lead to deep moisture continuing to advect into the area. Moisture box...check.
Surface obs for the afternoon of 5 July. Notice 70+ dewpoints well into Kentucky.
Sufficient destabilization was occurring with SBCAPE on the order of 1,000-1,500j/kg, lapse rates weren't great but they were good enough, and this instability produced a nice gradient right across south central Kentucky (Gradients are good because they indicate an imbalance in the atmosphere). Instability...I'll take it, check.
Surface-based CAPE (Instability) during the afternoon of 5 July
Wind fields left a lot to be desired however. Flow was pretty weak overall but there was a subtle shortwave trough passing through and a weak speed max (40kts) associated with it was passing over the area from the southwest. Although speed shear was poor, directional shear was okay. Aloft, winds were from the West/Southwest and what really played into target choice was an area of backing surface winds North of Bowling Green due to a stalled frontal boundary draped East to West across central KY (By backing I mean that winds were shifting from southwesterly to southeasterly with time). Deep-layer shear wasn't good but there was an enhanced area of low-level shear and helicity near the stationary front. Not ideal but given the fact that storms were going to be linear anyway I wasn't too concerned with if the environment favored supercells and supercell tornadoes because I knew that there was potential for rotation within the line. Wind Shear...check-ish.
Helicity at the Effective Inflow Layer
With a stalled front and passing shortwave there would be plenty of ascent to initiate thunderstorms, I was confident of that. It was a question of how well would they take advantage of the marginal, yet favorably overlapped ingredients in place. This would be the plan, hang out near the stationary front along the instability gradient where wind shear was somewhat enhanced.
Surface Analysis during the afternoon of 5 July. The stalled front crawling North into KY was a big part of our target choice.
Then, while watching the storms on radar we noticed that there was a discrete cell out ahead of the line. No, this discrete cell did not all of a sudden produce anything, in fact it was dying, but it was about to be ingested into the line. I won't get into the intricacies of this but there are times, given the right circumstances, that this will briefly increase the chances of a tornado. This was the right circumstances. We decided to go directly to the interface where the old storm was being ingested into the main line of storms. What did we see there?
Why this of course!
Which quickly developed into this before occluding and disappearing forever.
10 July 2017 Mini-Outbreak in Northern Indiana
We were quickly back at it. On 7 July we went to southern Indiana for an "enhanced" risk for severe weather. After the success on the 5th you'd think this one would be a layup right? Wrong, even though we were able to get exactly where we wanted to be, which was in the inflow notch of a beautiful supercell tracking near Seymour Indiana, it isn't up to how well you forecast or position yourself. It's always up to my lovely mistress Ms. Nature, M. (Video below is the supercell from southern Indiana as it tried to produce a tornado with a screenshot of the radar about the same time. Classic wall cloud, strong rotation, just didn't do it. Tornadogenesis Failure)
Radar at about the same time as the video above. Video taken looking North from our position. Video taken by Jon Durall (My Chase Partner)
Then on 10 July myself along with many of the folks I chase with again met up. In Indiana again, of course! Have you noticed a trend yet? The only thing that happened this day was a dozen tornadoes touched down across northern Indiana. It was my second multi-tornado day of the season. We had a three-peat by the time we left to come home. (Shout out to Jon Durall and Chris Dickerson for being a part of that day and night)
Two Tornado Warned Supercells. The One in the Foreground was Producing a Funnel Cloud.
Same two tor-warned cells. Both had tornadoes on the ground but we could only see the one in front clearly. No worry, a couple of the guys I chase with were on the in the background just a few miles away providing real-time reports.
Tornado # 2, not far from Kokomo
Tornado # 2 again
Tornado # 3 near Kokomo
As you know we also had a historic hurricane season. Hurricane Harvey brought historic rainfall to Texas, I mean FEET of rain, over 50 inches, as it made landfall in Rockport, TX. It then stalled along the coast and just kept the rain coming day after day. We've all heard about different things that happened due to this from the water rescues by citizens in fishing boats to the fact that the city of Houston literally sank about 2cm.
Map showing the vertical motion of land in southeast Texas. Land fluctuates but what is so impressive is that this was from one event, demonstrating the power of water. Image Credit: Chris Milliner, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Radar screenshot during Hurricane Harvey as I was making my way toward the coast. Full disclosure, after only about a day in Texas I decided to call it off and head home. Things were iffy when I got there and I spent most of my time bouncing around tornadoes/possible tornadoes.
Hurricane Harvey Radar Screenshot
Hurricane Harvey Radar Screenshot
Then Hurricane Irma! Made its way through the Leeward Islands, up through Cuba, and finally to Florida. Major damage occurred in the Florida Keys with damage occurring clear into Georgia. Power outages and fuel shortages extended up into Georgia as well. My partner (Hunter Gross) and I even faced the prospect of running out of gas ourselves. Let me point out that this was not do to a lack of preparedness. Hunter and I both pride ourselves on being prepared for anything and have operated in past hurricanes, blizzards, and even the Gatlinburg,TN wildfires. We took enough extra fuel to make it back into Georgia but what caught us off guard was the sheer extent of impacts. If not for a stroke of luck and the hard work of a fellow chaser then we would not have found any more fuel.
Evacuations in advance of Hurricane Irma.
Working hard as Irma approached.
Working even harder as Irma approached. Surprisingly this didn't last much longer. (Ha)
This was a common sight following Irma, even in areas that didn't see "significant" damage.
Tampa Bay. Image showing the water being pushed back that everyone was freaking out about online for awhile.
Personally things got quiet following July, with the exception of the hurricanes, and I was unsuccessful in chasing tornadoes following the 3-in-one-day chase on 10 July. There were a number of chases for sure but I don't hold all the cards and sometimes that's just the way it goes. Either way I was at 10 tornadoes seen up until 5 November. Myself and a couple friends from Memphis took to the road to head to...surprise, southern Indiana! Wouldn't you know it, we were able to see two tornadoes by the time this mini-outbreak was said and done.
As is often the case in the Ohio Valley this is your view when observing a tornado. There really was a tornado on the ground just beyond those trees. We briefly caught about two glimpses of it in clearings. That's one reason why it's important to have unbreakable situational awareness.
And here's one of those clearings. This was about as good as it got during this chase.
Above: 4-Panel radar screenshot at the time we were observing the tornado on 5 November. (Panels from Top Left Clockwise: Base Reflectivity, Correlation Coefficient, Storm-Relative Motion showing Tight Rotation, Normalized Rotation-Values of 1.5+ correlate with strong rotation)
Close up of Storm-Relative Motion Product on Radar during time we were observing the tornado on 5 November. From this perspective to the radar site Red indicates South/Southeast Winds and Blue indicates North/Northwest winds. Tornado was located where they converge just Northeast of my location.
There was one more chase for me and that was the 18th of November chase we covered earlier. The season total was at 12 and that's where it sits right now with 20 minutes left in 2017. Not bad, especially considering that I think of myself as a storm chaser not just a tornado chaser.
Going into 2017 I had set a couple of specific goals for chasing, just like I do with every aspect of my life. I wanted to see more tornadoes than I did in 2016 (6)...Got it! I wanted to cover a category 2+ hurricane (I was in Category 1 Hermine in 2016)...this one wasn't necessarily in my hands but whatever, got it, twice (2 Cat 4's). I wanted to join the <2% club and see a tornado on a day with a less than 2% chance for them...got it! Really all I wanted to do was get better than I was before and that's something we can all do. It doesn't matter if you're trying to track nature's most elusive and dangerous storms, working in an office somewhere, writing music, or anything, we can all strive to get better. Pretty simple huh? In life you either grow or decay, you can't just exist in a state of complacency. If you're not growing then you're decaying. I can promise that regardless of what specific goals I have for 2018 they will all be aimed at helping me grow in an effort to perfect my craft.
Also, please understand that I am not a storm chaser who sits around begging for storms to wreak havoc on people's livelihood. I do not cheer and yell when I watch storms rip homes apart. During the unfortunate times that I've seen absolute destruction I treat the situation with the respect it deserves and I would hope that others do the same. Like anyone else, I would prefer that tornadoes remain in an open field miles away from the nearest structure, probably in Kansas because you see that sort of thing there, and then they could be observed and studied easily with no harm done. I just know that that's not the case and I simply try to be where they happen when they happen.
This post wouldn't be complete without acknowledging the loss of two individuals whom I had the tremendous blessing of knowing. Kelley and Randy were more than just my mentors, they were truly my friends and things are not the same without them. I really miss those guys and I know so many of you feel the same, whether you knew them personally and had the pleasure of learning from them, or you knew them through the amazing work they did in this community. I will carry myself in 2018, as I did in 2017, in a way intended to make them proud.
Kelley Doing What Kelley Did, In This Case He Was Teaching An Eager Child About Weather (Taken by me near Garland/Rowlett, TX on 18 March 2017
Randy and Myself in Indianapolis During November 2016
So now I sit here, frantically pecking away at a keyboard so I can publish a blog post at exactly midnight. It's freezing cold outside, a balmy 10 degrees with a wind chill of -5 to -10F. This post has had me thinking about this past year all day long, really for a few days if I'm being honest, and I know there are things I wanted to say and forgot and there are things I'll think of that I wish I would have said but hey, if I'm fortunate enough, there's always next year...
